Market Review & Outlook 2Q2026
Crypto, yes. Oil and Gold, not so much. Meme coins are a disaster, and we shouldn’t call them cryptocurrencies – Pokémon cards are a better store of value. Markets and media are still working through what it means to be “on-chain,” versus not. Meanwhile, oil has acquired a new $10-20/bbl risk premium around the Strait of Hormuz drama. Either we will have a de facto toll, or we will be pricing in reduced supply to a similar value. This suggests it’s really time to move on from the oil economy… And if you thought you could ride out global uncertainty by hiding in a bunker with gold, we’d strongly recommend against it. Whatever the future holds, it is likely to place greater value on digital assets and computing power (and consequently electricity). Markets to the Moon? How is the market hitting new highs despite a deeply unpopular US administration, persistent inflation, and ongoing military conflict in the Middle East? We acknowledge that AI has unleashed new productivity and growth, but we are skeptical about flawless execution and adoption. Furthermore, it will take much more than jawboning the media to manage inflation and military conflict. Bumps ahead.
